There seems to be a general consensus that of the midfield positions up for grabs Heath and Rodriguez are in competition (this idea is included in NBC’s prediction of the Olympic roster). I remain unconvinced by this sentiment. I think Rodriguez’s spot is relatively safe. Predicting a roster does not have to do with figuring out which players best fit the team but rather figuring out which players the coaches think best fit the team. Looking at how Rodriguez has been used this past year reveals a lot about the USWNT coaching staff. She has played in every single game this year. Other players such as Buehler, LePeilbet, O’Hara, Boxx, O’Reilly, and even Morgan have not played every game. On the other hand people just assume that Rapinoe will make the roster. I do not understand this assumption given how she has been used recently by the coaching staff and her productivity level. Looking at the statistics I think that if only one more flank player will be on the roster in addition to Cheney, Rodriguez, and O’Reilly the competition comes between Heath and Rapinoe.
Heath and Rapinoe are both creative outside mids who are noted for their skillfulness and flair. That in itself puts them in competition with one another. Furthermore Heath has played in 8 games while Rapinoe played in 9 games this year. Rapinoe has played in 100 more minutes but most of those came in the qualifying tournament and her time on the field has decreased recently at the Algarve Cup where Heath played 178 minutes while Rapinoe only got on the field for 110.
One of the reasons people may think that Heath and Rodriguez are in competition for the last flank midfield position is the fact that they are often subbed in for one another. Being one’s substitute gives the illusion that they are replacing their spot on the field and therefore competing for the same spot. I would argue that many times the USWNT coaching staff uses substitutes in a much different manner allowing different players to shift into other positions as seen by Cheney moving to forward or to central midfield and left midfielders shifting to the right.
Looking at how Rapinoe and Heath are used in lineups shows that they too are rarely on the pitch together. In fact in the games that they do not play typically the other player gets time. Rapinoe missed out on the Dominican Republic, Denmark, and Kirin Cup Japan matches (games in which Heath played) while Heath did not participate in the Guatemala, Mexico, Canada, and New Zealand matches (where Rapinoe did). Additionally typically when Player A gets a chance in one game in the following game Player B is the first off the bench and vice versa. This happened between the Dominican Republic and Guatemala games, and all of the games following the New Zealand game.
But who does the coaching staff seem to be preferring in recent games? I would say Heath. Heath has started twice since the qualifying tournament while Rapinoe has not started since. In the six games at the Algarve and in Japan, Heath played in every one while Rapinoe only played in four. In the first games of each tournament (Denmark and Japan) Heath was the first player off the bench and Rapinoe did not see time in either of those games. Finally Rapinoe’s minutes have gone down recently (250 down to 155 after New Zealand) as Heath’s have gone up (107 up to 196).
I’ll try to get a statistical comparison of the two players and their actual performance later this week but hopefully this post explains how examining the simple statistics of minutes played can give insight into coaching preferences.
uswntstats 